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The election result, in general, can be interpreted as a continuation of stable instability because we got a structure that is difficult to fold. By a stable government, I don't mean one that has the support of 41, 42 or 43 deputies, because we have seen from previous examples how thin it is and how blackmailing these political subjects act on the very actions of the executive power - assessed the executive director of the Center for Civic Education Daliborka Uljarević in today's edition of Different Radio Connections on Radio Anteni M.
As reported by the Antene M portal, Uljarević reminded at the very beginning that the coalition led by the Movement for Europe must now assign six or seven mandates to the political entities on the list, and that it is uncertain how, in essence, they will relate to the process of forming the future government.
When asked to comment on the events in the last week of the pre-election campaign, emphasizing the Do Kwon affair and bringing PES leader Milojko Spajić into a relationship with him, Darko Šuković's interlocutor pointed out that the opening of that affair did much more harm to the "Hrabro se Broji" coalition ( URA and Democrats), but PES.
It is very good that we had elections, to show who has what kind of legitimacy. It is clear that the government in its current composition has no legitimacy. The URA did not go to the elections independently, but tactically appeared with the Democrats, from whom it is very well respected. Now we have received a clear answer that the existing government has no legitimacy. Also, it has been shown that those who in the current government offer open resistance to initiatives such as the Open Balkans, have a stronger foothold in the electorate, and I mean the Bosniak Party, than those who represent the backbone of the government, that is, URE and SNP.
When it comes to opening the Do Kwon affair, directly from Prime Minister Dritan Abazović, I can say that he grossly abused his position. However, it harmed the Europe Now Movement to a much lesser extent, and much more the URI and the Democrats, if we consider the end result - Uljarević believes.
Abazović's desire to retain power is pathological, he receives impulses from Belgrade
Commenting on the historically low turnout on June 11, Uljarević explains that it was precisely this percentage that made parties with traditionally well-developed infrastructure achieve a good result.
We have seen in research that the PES in principle ranged between 28-30%, but in circumstances of higher turnout. Such a low turnout does not favor parties that do not have good infrastructure, and we can also include PES in this category. This brought the coalition around the DPS 'Together' in a much better position than expected, because they have a good infrastructure. This also saved the SNP from passing the census, contributed to the NOVA and DNP coalition. Everyone else struggled as they could, so PES somehow had to lose compared to initial expectations. However, as much as it is a growing force, with its electoral list PES does not cover more than half of Montenegro - explains the interlocutor of Antena M.
Referring again to the Do Kwon affair, Uljarević explains why that moment did not contribute to the outcome that Abazović wished for.
When I say that in my opinion it did not have a significant impact on PES, then I think that it really did not communicate to their voters, because the public is not so aware of the extent of Do Kwon's criminality. Nevertheless, the outcome turned out to be such that the affair is an indicator that it is not possible to negotiate with the URA regarding the formation of the government, and that Abazović made the negotiations impossible and complicated in advance for personal and other reasons. It is an obvious pathological desire to retain power. On the other hand, we also recognize the impulse from official Belgrade, because the formation of such a stable government would mean unblocking the EU path, which Aleksandar Vučić does not want at all. When the opportunity to enter the EU was clearly given last year, the obstruction followed precisely with the signing of the Basic Agreement. Everything that we will see in the coming days will be contained in the strong obstructions of the URE to form the government - Uljarević points out.
Explaining what kind of obstructions he is referring to, considering the fact that the URA has the power of only four deputies in the new parliament, but that it has the power of the position of prime minister and minister, Uljarević says that it is difficult to assume all mechanisms of action, but that two scenarios are certain:
It is likely that URE's activities will focus on the issue of citizenship and security. We will see what Abazović and Adžić are ready for, because the Prime Minister has completely occupied the Ministry of Defense, ANB, Ministry of Internal Affairs with his influence, so this should be the motivation of PES to form the Government as soon as possible.
Now we have seen that the whole struggle for the URA to protect the security sector from the DF was a sham. What is true is Abazović's intention that this apparatus be open to official Serbia - Uljarević believes.
Unclear intention of the Democrats to form a coalition with the URA
I did not understand at the national level what was the motivation behind the formation of the "Courage Counts" coalition. With Demos, they achieved 12% of the votes in 2020, and then they were obliged to give Demos an chose only one mandate. In the same situation now, URI should give as many as four mandates. They earned themselves the completely unnecessary epithet of Vučić's player. It is not going well, but now they have the possibility to go out and continue to act independently, because it would be politically suicidal for them to continue to carry the burden of URE. It is likely that there are pressures from the SPC, media close to Vučić and Abazović to remain in the coalition with Abazović, but mathematics clearly shows that combinations without URE are quite possible and desirable. Any government that has URE and Dritan members is the most unstable, as they have proven to be a destructive element wherever they are found. Such a party is not competitive on the political market, because you cannot agree on anything with it - says Uljarević for Anten M.
The post-election calculations could not be revealed immediately on the night of June 11, says Uljarević because, as he claims, it is clear that the government is not formed on values but on interests.
The messages that were heard from the spokespersons of Europe now that they will form a coalition with those who share their values, and if it were not DPS and URA, I would not take it seriously as something that will determine certain trends. He will talk to everyone, that's quite obvious. They are open to conversations with those who share their values, we heard that, but basically we didn't find out what those values are. Values are the least talked about when it comes to political actors. I would like them to give us clear views on the value vertical. Values are not the only thing that unites political subjects, but what is reflected through interests. This government will be interest based. As citizens, we should be interested in whether that group will follow the public interest or exclusively the private interest - adds Uljarević.
A grand coalition is needed, which requires courage
Uljarević points out that it is possible to form a pro-Western government in which he sees the Europe Now Movement, a coalition gathered around the DPS, the Democrats and the minority party. However, he believes that it also requires great courage.
That grand coalition is the one that requires the most courage, it is risky for communication with a part of the voters of all the subjects I am talking about, not only for the communication of PES with voters. However, in politics you can't win if you don't take risks. If you have a clear intention to achieve goals, in four years of such an executive that will follow that plan, you will most likely satisfy all your constituents. Any tactics would be irresponsible, because it means that you don't expect the government to last longer than a year - explains the executive director of CGO.
Subjects that continue to fight the battles of the past are disappearing
Uljarević also analyzes the fact that some entities continued to build their campaign on opposition to Milo Đukanović, who went into political retirement. Those who built their political existence on opposing Milo Đukanović's DPS fared the worst in the elections, because they were battles of the past. They have no issues if there is no Đukanović. The question is how quickly they will disappear, because people see what reality is. It actually offends common sense if you are fighting a battle against a man who has retired from politics. We know what real battles are and what reality is - she says.
If the government is not formed within 90 days, and we come to new elections, Uljarević believes that this would be the least suitable for the Europe Now Movement.
PES is a movement in decline. It has grown rapidly and cannot maintain that strength unless it forms a government, so it is in the absolute interest of PES to form it now - believes Uljarević.
To what extent the turnout could be affected by the fact that this time we did not have such a strong influence of Serbia, financially and in the media, Uljarević says that we were lucky in that part.
Vučić has his own problems to deal with, so it would be a waste of energy to focus on what he believes is under control. Nevertheless, the influence of Serbia and the SPC was not lost, but probably Vučić estimated that the situation in Montenegro, as far as he was concerned, was stable, so he did not observe this with much concern.
The Church of Serbia had several favorites, it will lose power if a large coalition is formed
Speaking about the fact that one of the favorites of the Church of Serbia, "Pravda za sve" Vladimir Leposavić, failed to cross the electoral threshold, Uljarević says that this religious organization nevertheless has a dispersive focus on many actors that it sees as those who exercise its influence.
The SPC had dispersive favorites, in addition to Leposavic, who had no infrastructure, there is the list 'Slozno i tačka' by Dejan Vukšić, which remained well below the census, and I saw it as a small Russian list. The SNP is also a party that is under the influence of the SPC, and the influence of the church is also on the list 'Hrabro se broji', and on the list consisting of DNP and NOVA. A lot of influence of the SPC is still present and it has not lost its levers of power, unless this large coalition is formed.
The good result of minorities is a reason for concern, it is a consequence of the feeling of being threatened
Uljarević, with congratulations for the good result achieved by the minority parties, says that he is like this the outcome cares.
It shows that multiculturalism lives as an illusion, and that the distances have become more pronounced, so the less numerous peoples feel threatened and turn to their national parties. On the one hand, it is good that these parties managed to animate their electorate, however, it is clear that their supporters are afraid of something. Due to recent events, it is no wonder that this is still happening, because it is more dangerous than hearing those cries of 'Knife, wire, Podgorica' from a group of FK Sutjeska fans in the center of Podgorica, is when you hear the relativization of those situations from the decision makers - explains Uljarević.
In an interview for Anten, M Uljarević also explains the unexpectedly good ranking of the "Together" coalition, and the reasons for this, he believes, are as follows:
The Zajedno coalition made a much better result than expected, because after so many defeats, it entered the election process, with a strong personnel cut. That coalition also entered with a weakened infrastructure because the DPS previously relied on the system, which it lost in the meantime. Also, the last decade of its activity was marked by a clientelistic-nepotistic weft.
It is also important that the result of the 'Together' coalition is very close to the coalition led by PES, especially if you look at how far behind the third and fourth lists are.
The Democratic Party of Socialists proved to be the party that survived one of the most turbulent periods. DPS should learn what they did well and what they still need to work on. The cut has been made, but it cannot be made so deep and radical without retaining the electorate. DPS now has to build its individuality, and I believe that this step forward will encourage them.
SDP - Disappearing party?
According to Uljarević, the Social Democratic Party played a very risky game by going to the elections independently, because it missed three safe seats in the parliament, which were guaranteed to it if it had joined the coalition with the DPS.
In the event that they get a few hundred missing votes in a potential repeat election and pass the census, it would be a great success. If this does not happen, we would witness the end of a party that was one of the key actors in Montenegrin history. I don't see how that party can survive if it doesn't have parliamentary status. Personally, I think it would be better for the parliament if the SDP, not the SNP, entered its composition.
As far as support from the West is concerned, Uljarević clarifies that we have not received imperative expectations. However, they sent us a message in which they said between the lines who they would not like to see in the government.
They won't say at this point what that means in a personal sense. I don't see DF in their expectations, but I wouldn't say that anyone in Brussels is convinced that URA sticks to European integration. I would like to conclude with an illustration: Abazović almost had a presentation about one year of the Government's work, which lasted over an hour. However, in that presentation, less than 20 seconds were dedicated to achievements in the field of European integration - concluded Uljarević for Antena M.
POBJEDA
