WORLD NEWS FOR MONTENEGRO DIASPORA
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URA, a party with five percent support, has executive power at the national level, and when we take into account how disproportionately large the percentage of votes won in the parliamentary elections is at the disposal of large national resources, we can conclude that it experienced an extremely bad result in the elections in Podgorica. This means that their relationship with voters is dominantly reduced to clientelism. If they didn't have the government, the question is whether they would pass the census in Podgorica, where they employed so many of their sympathizers and members - Zlatko Vujović, a political analyst, told Pobjeda.
He pointed out that "they still do not understand the punishment of the voters in this party, but they convince themselves and the public that they have achieved great success", and that "facing the reality would require the resignation of its president". Vujović said that Ura was punished by the voters for signing the "Basic Agreement" because, as he says, they are not the voters of the "Serbian world", but also because of the Prime Minister's relativization of views on Russian influence in Montenegro, but above all because of stopping European integration.
Populism
Vujović said that Europe now took a large number of votes in Podgorica and Danilovgrad from the list led by the DPS, as well as from the Democrats, DF and Ura.
"Therefore, they represent the only complete winner of the election, and this party can thank the great support of the voters above all to the populist story about increasing salaries and pensions, even though it is not possible to implement it at the local level," Vujović said.
He pointed out that the DPS, i.e. its mayor Ivan Vuković, led a European-type, civil campaign in Podgorica, focused on local issues.
"The focus of such a campaign was on comparing what was promised and achieved during his mandate, and the plans and promises for the new mandate. Although he was probably the most successful mayor of Podgorica, and possibly in Montenegro, since the introduction of parliamentarism, without corruption scandals which we are used to from his colleagues, the voters did not support him. DPS mistakes partly came from the national level when it comes to economic problems and how to prevent the expected bankruptcy of the state, but also due to the strategy of "all on the same list" ignoring that some voters will not vote for DPS at any price, even though they do not want to vote for the majority from 2020," said Vujović, saying that DPS must make radical cuts, that "rebranding, transformation of DPS and their unification with to some other political parties, with a new identity, the way to consolidate this political party, but with the departure of compromised deputies".
"Litmus paper" for parliamentary elections
"Elections in the capital are definitely a litmus test for parliamentarians, because Podgorica is Montenegro in miniature. The biggest motivation of all actors of the electoral process was to achieve a good result in Podgorica, because there are great resources, money, influence, and a large number of voters. ", said Vujović.
According to him, in the elections in Podgorica there were "a lot of losers and maybe only one winner, and that is Europe now".
"They managed to take voters from DPS, the Democrats, Ura and DF, because they came up with a populist story that has nothing to do with local elections. They talked about increasing salaries, and they distanced themselves from it right after the election, because they are not in a position to decide what the salaries will be. But that populist story, based on what Milojko Spajić did during his term as minister, had a great result. An increase in the lowest salary and pension, as well as numerous social benefits that are not all their merit , citizens remember as a product of their time in power, and all of that influenced voters to vote for Europe now," Vujović pointed out, adding that other parties did not understand how poorly citizens really live.
According to him, if we are talking about the reflection on the national elections, Europe will continue to take voters to the Democrats and DF on that wave.
"It will probably stop when we talk about the block around the DPS, because of identity issues because they have that kind of homogenization that they didn't use in Podgorica, but they have it at the national level. If there weren't those issues, they would probably experience an even bigger decline." , assessed Vujović.
Commenting on the fact that part of the sovereignist voters voted for Europe now, which is pro-Serbian oriented, Vujović says that they "didn't think about it".
"They voted at the local level. And the DPS scared them by reducing salaries and pensions if they came to power," Vujović said, adding that the DPS made too many mistakes.
Emphasizing that the campaign was good, he pointed out that other messages were coming from the national level and that DPS did not understand the consequences of such communication and that this will be reflected in some municipalities.
"It is very fair when you say that Montenegro is on the verge of bankruptcy, it is, it is very fair when you tell the citizens that the contract with the IMF will be signed next year, which implies layoffs of employees from the state administration and reduction of salaries and pensions. DPS is some things said, but that's not what the voters wanted to hear," Vujović said.
When asked what, after Vuković's completely different campaign, DPS should do to win back voters, Vujović said that "DPS is a pretty spent brand."
"They have to understand that. It would be best if they did a rebranding through the creation of a new political party. The transformation of the DPS and their unification with some other ideologically close political parties, with a new identity, is one way of consolidating this political party. But with the departure of five or six compromised deputies who are even given various functions in the Assembly. By electing Bran Gvozdenović as the president of the Committee for European Integration, DPS sends the message that he is the man who will lead Montenegro if DPS comes to power. If European integration is one of the most important issues of this country, and DPS believes that the best name they have is Brano Gvozdenović, then they will continue to lose voter support. I took him as an example, because he is in the highest position and heads one of the most important committees, but there were plenty of people like him," he said. Vujović.
He said that the question is whether the DPS can influence those few officials to resign.
"Did they say that, if they were asked to do so, they would become independent MPs, did they perhaps say that they would switch to another political party, and the party's leadership believes that this is the crowning of the party's power... But the consequences that it suffers DPS because of such cadres are huge, harmful, devastating for the party. It is completely irrelevant whether Gvozdenović or someone else will change sides or not, because they all got 38 percent together in Podgorica. Let's project at the level of Montenegro, 40 percent all together ", said Vujović.
According to him, the DPS must first of all send a message to the Western partners - "it is finished with some people".
They have to make radical cuts. This is not the issue of DPS, parties are disappearing, new ones are emerging, but now it is very important that due to the strategic orientation of Montenegro, we get a convincing pro-Western majority in the Montenegrin parliament, and with such actions the DPS leadership is endangering that," Vujović said.
New batch needed
He said that "this story cannot be solved without a new political party, which would have no relation with the existing parties".
"When I tell this story, I mean to ensure the pro-European, pro-Western orientation of Montenegro. That party that would be created would be strong, influential, and have increased coalition capacity. I personally believe that Montenegro needs a new political party that would be pro-Western, civil, which would match the projects of constantly attracting and taking over pro-Western voters for leaders who are not pro-Western, because Europe is not now pro-Western oriented, it is just a new replacement for the Democrats, Ura, DF, it is a new repackaging to attract pro-Western voters and led by a pro-Serbian / pro-Russian policy", believes Vujović.
He pointed out that we need a new pro-Western party, which will be made up of people who have never been in power and who will try to mobilize all pro-Western, critically oriented citizens who believe that Montenegro is going in a bad direction, but who are not ready to vote for the strategy that DPS places in Podgorica.
"In addition to this new party that has no connection with the existing parties, a new party is needed that would be created by transforming the parties that were once in cooperation with DPS, namely SDP, SD and DPS," said Vujović.
According to him, it will be very difficult for SD and SDP after these elections to achieve good results at the national level. This integrated too many of them, he said, but it integrated them with a bad result.
According to Vujović, Ura's bad election result was expected, "but not this much".
"This was influenced by the signing of the "Fundamental Agreement", because their voters are not voters of the "Serbian world", then the scandal surrounding ANB, the fact that the Prime Minister uses every opportunity to relativize the views on Russian malignant influence in Montenegro. He stopped the process of European integration. I no longer see a difference between Ura, DF and the Democrats," Vujović said.
According to him, Democratic Montenegro received a very heavy blow. He said that their support in Podgorica was cut in half, that they lost Budva.
"In Budva in 2016, they almost equaled the result with DF, then in 2020 they halved that result, and now they are out of power," Vujović said.
For the SNP, he said that "the story is over".
"The SNP is weak, it has no voter support, a party that was on the verge of being shut down a long time ago. They were a party that had parliamentary status but no deputies. They have now gathered a large number of people that they employed, but that was not enough motivation for people to vote. for them, the SNP is a story without a certain future," Vujović said.
He pointed out that, when it comes to the formation of the government in Podgorica, it is possible for Europe now, the Democrats and the DF to agree on the formation of the government in Podgorica or to wait for extraordinary parliamentary elections if their holding is certain soon, and that in this way "bigger package".
"I am closer to the fact that they will come to an agreement, because ideologically they are on the same side," Vujović added.
DPS had wrong data
Zlatko Vujović says that due to poor public opinion research, the DPS had wrong data at its disposal and therefore drew wrong conclusions.
"There was no strategy, no good public opinion surveys were conducted, the DPS had the wrong data at their disposal, unlike their opponents. Based on the wrong data, they drew wrong conclusions. The parties do not invest in research, in experts who will interpret them and create election strategies , but they believe that with some of their assessments, not to mention tricks, they can achieve an election result. A political party that is the strongest on the political scene cannot have its research done by only one agency and completely rely on it, it is necessary to reduce the risk with more them", believes Vujović.
B.D.Z.
